The appeal of an ADU is easy to state and easy to overstate: build a small home in space you already own, rent it, and let someone else service the debt. That case is often genuinely good. It is also routinely presented with the inconvenient parts removed.
Most published ADU return figures quote gross rent against unit price. Two things are missing from that: the cost of preparing the site, and everything that comes out of rent before it reaches you. Both are knowable, so the check includes them.
Where the rent number comes from
Rent is the input that decides everything downstream, so it is worth knowing how it is produced. Two public datasets are combined for your ZIP:
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents — a 40th-percentile gross rent published per ZIP and per bedroom count. Bedroom-specific, conservative by construction.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index — a typical asking rent for the same ZIP, smoothed monthly, across all home sizes.
The second is the more current signal but is not bedroom-specific, so applying it evenly would inflate small units — a studio would inherit the market average of three-bedroom houses. It is therefore weighted in by unit size: no weight at all for a studio, rising to half for a four-bedroom, with HUD always carrying at least half. The blend is shown on every result along with which datasets contributed.
What comes out before it is yours
Gross rent is not income. Three deductions apply before a return is meaningful:
- Vacancy, 5%. Turnover between tenants, conservatively assumed.
- Operating costs, 15% of gross. Maintenance, insurance, and management. If you self-manage you will beat this; if you hire a manager it is roughly the fee alone.
- Property tax on the new construction, about 1.1% of project cost. This is the one most often omitted. California reassesses new construction — your existing home keeps its Proposition 13 basis, but the ADU adds assessed value. On a $278,000 project that is roughly $3,000 a year, and leaving it out overstates return by around ten percent.
What remains is net operating income, and that is what payback and yield are computed against here.
Payback is a floor, not a forecast
Simple payback divides all-in cost by annual net operating income. It deliberately ignores rent growth, appreciation, and tax treatment of depreciation — all of which work in your favour over a long hold. It also ignores financing cost, which works against you. Read it as a conservative reference point for comparing lots and unit sizes, not as a prediction of your net worth in a decade.
What this check cannot tell you
It does not know your finish level, whether the unit has its own parking or private entry, or what the rental market looks like the month you list. It uses a $50,000 site-work allowance rather than a surveyed number, because trenching distance and soil are not visible from an address. And ZIP-level rent is an area expectation, not an appraisal of your specific unit. Verify against live comparable listings before you commit capital.